The U.S. paint and coatings market is experiencing steady growth, driven by a variety of different applications and uses, from industrial and automotive to architectural, which involves commercial, residential, and institutional construction.

For the architectural segment, demand for paints, preservatives and supplies has been fairly stagnant in 2026, similar to many other building product categories, although inflation-driven price hikes make the market appear larger. However, the widespread use of paints and coatings for both multifamily (MF) and single-family construction, as well as remodeling and upgrades, ensure the steady long-term demand for these products.

Additionally, there has been a shift toward sustainability and eco-friendly formulations; smart coatings; rapid innovations in additives and application technologies; and other evolving trends that are helping to drive growth in the market and create a more positive outlook in the upcoming year.

What is the Size of the Paint and Coatings Market in 2026?

The U.S. paint and coatings industry is valued at about $38.05 billion in 2026. With a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of roughly 4.28%, the market should grow to approximately $46.92 billion by 2031, based on data from Mordor Intelligence. This growth is driven in large part by infrastructure projects and the automotive industry, but architectural applications also make up nearly half of the market size, carried by steady residential remodeling activity and multi-family (MF) construction.

However, like many other building products categories, the perceived growth in paint and coatings throughout the past few quarters can also be attributed to higher prices, not simply a higher volume of sales. Additional data from the Home Improvement Research Institute’s most recent U.S. Home Improvement Products Market Forecast shows negative growth for both paint and preservatives and paint sundries and other supplies in 2026 when adjusted for inflation. Even taking inflation into account, however, the market is projected to improve in the upcoming forecast period from 2026 to 2030.

Remodeling remains the primary demand driver for paint, supported by gaining housing stock and continued homeowner investment in existing homes. New construction provides incremental lift, but repainting, repair, and refresh projects will drive the majority of volume. It’s important for paint and coating brands to monitor changes in project mix and application type as housing conditions evolve.  

What are the Major Groups of Coatings and Paints?

There are several ways to categorize paint and coatings, including the end-user industry, or type of application; the resin used; geography; and technology.

By resin type, acrylics make up 36.18% of the paints and coatings market in the U.S. with polyurethane, in particular, expected to have the highest CAGR (at 5.16%) through 2031, according to data from Mordor Intelligence. Based on technology, waterborne coatings consume the largest market share, or approximately 68.24%. They also show the highest projected CAGR of 5.36% through 2031. Paint and coatings used for architectural applications—such as covering commercial and residential buildings and other structures—comprise the largest segment by end-user industry.

The paint and coating manufacturing industry experienced a sharp spike in prices in 2021 and 2022, as measured by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Producer Price Index (PPI). Throughout 2023 and 2024, producer prices stabilized. They have been steadily increasing since mid-2025.

Emerging Trends Reshaping the Paint & Coatings Industry

Paint demand is supported by remodeling activity and spending growth in the professional segment, even as new construction headwinds and budget-sensitivity among consumers elevate the importance of trusted brands, durability, and coverage.

Here are a few other trends and factors influencing the future of the coatings and paint industry:

1. Gradual Growth Expected for Single-Family Housing Construction

The single-family (SF) housing sector has faltered over the past year and a half, but the market is expected to stabilize towards the end of 2026 and strengthen in late 2027 when affordability is expected to improve and pent-up demand returns, based on data from The Farnsworth Group’s Construction and Remodeling Industry Drivers Report. Meanwhile, multi-family (MF) starts are projected to moderate through 2026 as excess supply is absorbed, then level off in 2027. Increasing housing starts help drive higher paint demand, although the types of paint and supplies sought by homeowners and contractors can vary by SF and MF application.

2. Homeowners Strongly Influence Paint Choices

In general, professionals rely mostly on their own judgement when choosing building products. However, decisions around paint and paint supplies see a comparatively heavier influence from homeowners. Based on findings in our Paint Market: Trends and Sustainability Report, the top influencers for selecting paint and paint supplies are:

• Professionals (33%)
• Homeowners (30%)
• Suppliers (10%)
• Installers and Builders/GC (8% for each)

Professionals mostly use their preferred paint brands, only purchasing their non-preferred brand about 23% of the time. They are slightly more likely to switch suppliers than switch brands if their preferred supplier no longer carries their preferred brand.

When it comes to what factors influence paint and paint supply brand choice, the top drivers are:

• Reliable performance and durability (51%)
• Coverage and hide quality (39%)
• Selection of colors and finishes (33%)
• Competitive pricing (33%)

‍Tracking supplier switching behavior and service expectations can help paint and coatings brands and distributors protect loyalty in a competitive environment.  

3. Tightening Regulations on VOCs

There is a regulatory push affecting the industry to reduce volatile organic compounds (VOCs), which can extend shelf life and improve durability but also negatively impact air quality and human wellbeing. Regulations and consumer demand have influenced a shift toward alternative and low-VOC products and constraints on production processes using products with VOCs to improve the sustainability of paints used for home improvement. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has tightened regulations on VOCs starting at the beginning of the year, while certain states, such as California, have even stricter rules.

These changes have driven innovations towards new product options, as manufacturers work to align their products with tighter VOC requirements and sustainability-driven specifications in construction. There is also a demand for biobased materials and waterborne coatings—which already are the largest resin segment—are expanding because of their low environmental impact.

4. Demand for Sustainable and Low-Carbon Coatings

Research shows that sustainability also influences customer preferences and purchase behaviors, with the global “green coatings” market expected to reach nearly $203 billion by 2032, according to Precedence Research. As a product category, green coatings include those that are made using recycled or renewable materials and designed with processes that reduce carbon footprint and decrease waste.

In light of environmental concerns, new technologies and sustainable alternatives are becoming common in the industry.

For example, water-based and powder coatings are becoming more popular in a variety of applications. Not only do these materials have a natural lack of VOCs, but they’re also more eco-friendly than conventional coatings. Also, pigging technology is seen as a must-have for paint and coatings manufacturers. Pigging, or liquid product recovery, solutions are appropriate for water- and solvent-based paints, pigments and coatings. They have a variety of tangible benefits, from waste minimization to increasing yields and cost savings.‍

5. Addressing Customer Preferences and Safety Concerns

Safety is a similar concern, both for homeowners and interior and exterior painters. Pro and DIY customers prioritize products that are not known to cause negative side effects to human health and safety. One example of a safe and renewable ingredient that’s gained popularity is Decovery, a plant-based resin for paints and coatings that’s produced by DSM.

Additionally, with climate concerns on the rise, there will be increased demand for coating materials that are more resistant to heat, UV radiation, and corrosion. Manufacturers should consider strengthening these attributes in their paints and coatings to enhance the longevity of the material, whether it’s applied to vehicles, buildings, or tools.

Demand is also increasing for intumescent coatings over cementitious coatings. As demand for more durable building materials increases from customer demand for low-maintenance product options, this preference is expected to continue. There’s also a notable preference for lightweight building materials, which are more susceptible to damage, and this is driving innovation among brands with fire-resistance-positioned product lines.

HIRI has further researched pro and homeowner shopping trends in the paint and coatings industry and makes a wide range of data available to its members in order to aid strategic decision making for manufacturers.

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6. Changes in Production Processes

Other environmental challenges and goals impacting industry trends include waste minimization, process efficiency enhancement, and using renewable materials. Refining products to meet these concerns is one way paint and coatings manufacturers can increasingly appeal to trade professionals.

Across industries, companies are looking for equipment and materials that can increase efficiency, versatility and reliability. In recent years, this has evolved to include digitalization so processes can be operated remotely and with better automation. According to Polymers Paint Colour Journal, digital technologies are transforming various aspects of the industry, from formulation and color matching to marketing and distribution.

As industrial-sized fabrication and applications make gains in North America and Western Europe, building and construction markets like the Asia-Pacific region could drive unit sales growth of existing paint and coatings product lines that rely on the use of brush and roller applicators and less-automated application processes.

7. Rise of Functional and Smart Coatings

Smart coatings are being developed for construction efficiency, such as those that respond to environmental changes or improve adhesion in challenging conditions. These can reduce maintenance and improve performance in industrial and commercial applications. Fast-drying paints are gaining traction in both industrial and architectural sectors, reducing downtime and improving workflow efficiency.

Some of the other advanced coating technologies that are on the rise include:

• Anti-bacterial and antimicrobial paints, which are especially suitable for food processing and healthcare facilities, as well as other public spaces
• Energy-efficient reflective paints, designed to enhance a building’s energy performance by reducing heat gain
• Nanocoatings, which provide corrosion resistance and optimal durability, as well as antimicrobial properties

8. Emerging AI-assisted Formulation and R&D

Data is influencing research and development in new ways. Some companies are using AI and machine learning to analyze new compounds for paints and coatings more quickly and efficiently. This data gives developers more data to inform the production process.

Meanwhile, AI has also emerged more predominantly over the past couple of years to help with optimization and automation in the manufacturing process, from quality control and analysis to detecting defects. Coating manufacturers are utilizing AI technologies and tools to enhance their data collection and optimize their process, which should result in higher-quality materials at lower costs to customers, along with less waste and higher efficiency.  

What Business Questions Should Manufacturers be Asking?

With the home improvement industry facing several macroeconomic headwinds midway through 2026, as well as the evolving preferences of both professionals and homeowners when it comes to paint and coating selections, manufacturing brands are more pressed to create growth in a sluggish market. Here are a few questions to consider as you conduct customized market research to identify your market position, the attitudes and preferences of your customer base, and where the greatest growth opportunities lie:

• Which paint technologies are growing fastest?
• How are sustainability expectations changing customer demand?
• What role do Environmental Product Declarations (EPDs) play?
• How are changing regulations influencing formulation decisions?  
• What innovations are driving commercial growth?  
• Which customer needs remain underserved?  
• How are contractors' expectations changing?  
• Which end markets are creating the greatest opportunities?

Conducting Customized Market Research

Market reports point toward a paint and coatings industry that has been fairly flat in 2026 but expected to rebound steadily over the next couple of years, aided by resilient remodeling activity and an eventual uptick in SF construction.  

As you strategize for your paint and coating company’s future, it is important to conduct customized market research. The Farnsworth Group can help you get the specific data and meaningful insights you need to define opportunities for acquisition, distribution or changes to your product lines to maintain healthy brand share.